The Banco Central del Paraguay (BCP) has published the August round of its monthly expectations survey, and for anyone converting foreign income into guaraníes it carries a change of direction. The panel puts the exchange rate at 6,000 ₲/USD for August, 6,150 at the close of 2026 and 6,400 at the close of 2027. In other words, the guaraní's long rally is expected to stop roughly here.
The Encuesta de Expectativas de Variables Económicas (EVE) polls banks, finance houses, rating agencies, brokerages, consultancies, universities and independent analysts, and reports the median rather than any single institution's view. It is the closest thing Paraguay has to a published market consensus.
What the August Survey Changed for the Guaraní
The headline is a downward revision to the dollar across every horizon the survey covers.
| Horizon | August survey (₲/USD) |
|---|---|
| August 2026 | 6,000 |
| September 2026 | 6,015 |
| Close of 2026 | 6,150 |
| Close of 2027 | 6,400 |
The BCP notes that the same panel had put August at 6,150 in its July round, so the current month's estimate was cut by 150 guaraníes in the space of four weeks. ABC Color reports the July survey placed the close of 2026 at 6,300 and 2027 at 6,500, both of which have now come down.
The other variables moved less. Median inflation for the close of 2026 slipped to 3.3%, while the medians for the close of 2027, the next twelve months and the monetary policy horizon all held at 3.5%. Monthly inflation is put at 0.2% for both August and September. GDP growth is seen at 4.3% this year and 4.0% next. The policy rate is expected to stay at 5.50% into December and ease to 5.25% by the end of 2027.
Where the Guaraní and the Dollar Stand Right Now
The forecast lands against an unusually strong currency. The BCP reference rate for the fluctuating market closed 17 August at 6,027.92 buying and 6,037.48 selling.
Two weeks earlier the guaraní had been stronger still. On 3 August it closed at 5,961.64 per dollar, an appreciation of 10.48% since the start of the year, when the rate stood at 6,227.60. Press reports at the time noted it was the third-lowest dollar reading in seven years.
Worth registering: the mid-August market rate already sits slightly above the survey's own 6,000 median for the month. If there is a turn, it appears to have started before the forecast was published.
Why the Paraguay Dollar Forecast Points Upward
Read as a path rather than a set of separate numbers, the survey describes a slow reversal. A dollar at 6,400 by December 2027 is roughly 6% above the mid-August reference rate, which means forecasters expect the guaraní to give back part, though not all, of this year's gain.
That is a different message from the one the same currency delivered in July, when a 19.7% year-on-year appreciation was cutting into customs revenue and, incidentally, into the purchasing power of every foreign-currency budget in the country.
One caveat belongs next to the forecast rather than in a footnote. A panel that moved its own August figure by 150 guaraníes within a month is telling you something about the precision available here. The direction is the usable signal; the decimal places are not.
What a Rising Dollar Forecast Means If You Earn Abroad
For residents living on dollars, euros or pounds, the practical reading is that the currency headwind of 2026 is expected to ease rather than intensify. Nothing in the survey suggests relief this quarter, but the path no longer points at a steadily more expensive Paraguay in foreign-currency terms.
The distinction that matters is between recurring costs and one-off sums. Rent, school fees and groceries are converted month after month, so they average out over any forecast horizon and there is little to time. A single large transfer, for a property purchase or the capital behind a residency application, is different: it happens once, at one rate.
On that second category the consensus is saying, in effect, that today is near the least favorable end of the cycle. Whether to act on a forecast that has been revised twice in two months is a judgment call, and the honest answer is that nobody knows. Our money transfer guide covers the mechanics either way, and the cost of living guide quotes figures in dollars, which is precisely the number an exchange-rate move rewrites.
None of this touches the tax position. Foreign-source income stays outside Paraguayan income tax under the territorial system, and a currency movement changes what your money buys, not what you owe.
US citizens and green-card holders: your filing obligation is unaffected in either direction. The United States taxes worldwide income on the basis of citizenship, so Paraguayan residency does not exempt you whatever the guaraní does.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Guaraní and the Dollar
Why has the Paraguayan guaraní been so strong in 2026?
The dollar has fallen from 6,227.60 guaraníes at the start of the year to roughly 6,030 in mid-August, an appreciation of more than 10%. A record trade performance and steady export receipts are the usual explanations given in Paraguay, alongside a broadly softer dollar internationally.
Will the guaraní keep strengthening against the dollar?
The August EVE consensus says no. It expects the dollar to recover to 6,150 by December 2026 and 6,400 by the end of 2027. That is a forecast, not a fact, and the same panel has revised its numbers downward in each of the last two rounds.
Does the exchange rate change Paraguay's 0% tax on foreign income?
No. Paraguay taxes on a territorial basis, so foreign-source income falls outside the scope regardless of the rate at which you convert it. The exchange rate affects your purchasing power in Paraguay, not your liability there.
Is a weaker guaraní good news for foreign residents?
For your budget, yes, in the narrow sense that your income converts into more guaraníes. For Paraguay it is a mixed outcome, since a softer currency lifts import costs and feeds inflation, which is the same pressure that would eventually reach your rent.
Working out what a move actually costs at today's rates? The first conversation is free and unhurried, and it covers the currency arithmetic as readily as the paperwork. Talk to us.
Disclaimer: This article is general information, not financial, currency or tax advice. Expectations surveys report opinion, not outcomes, and exchange rates move daily. Verify current figures with the BCP or a qualified adviser before acting on them.
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About the author
Yannick Schroth
Founder · Paraguay relocation advisor
Lives in Asunción and guides international nomads, entrepreneurs and investors toward residency, a cédula and a tax-efficient structure in Paraguay.
